Prospective spatial-temporal clusters of COVID-19 in local communities: case study of Kansas City, Missouri, United States

Kansas City, Missouri, became one of the major United States hotspots for COVID-19 due to an increase in the rate of positive COVID-19 test results. Despite the large numbers of positive cases in Kansas City, MO, the spatial-temporal analysis of data has been less investigated. However, it is critical to detect emerging clusters of COVID-19 and enforce control and preventive policies within those clusters. We conducted a prospective Poisson spatial-temporal analysis of Kansas City, MO data to detect significant space-time clusters of COVID-19 positive cases at the zip code level in Kansas City, MO. The analysis focused on daily infected cases in four equal periods of 3 months. We detected temporal patterns of emerging and re-emerging space-time clusters between March 2020 and February 2021. Three statistically significant clusters emerged in the first period, mainly concentrated in downtown. It increased to seven clusters in the second period, spreading across a broader region in downtown and north of Kansas City. In the third period, nine clusters covered large areas of north and downtown Kansas City, MO. Ten clusters were present in the last period, further extending the infection along the State Line Road. The statistical results were communicated with local health officials and provided the necessary guidance for decision-making and allocating resources (e.g., vaccines and testing sites). As more data become available, statistical clustering can be used as a COVID-19 surveillance tool to measure the effects of vaccination.