Strategies of Managing Repeated Measures: Using Synthetic Random Forest to Predict HIV Viral Suppression Status Among Hospitalized Persons with HIV

The HIV/AIDS epidemic remains a major public health concern since the 1980s; untreated HIV infection has numerous consequences on quality of life. To optimize patients’ health outcomes and to reduce HIV transmission, this study focused on vulnerable populations of people living with HIV (PLWH) and compared different predictive strategies for viral suppression using longitudinal or repeated measures. The four methods of predicting viral suppression are (1) including the repeated measures of each feature as predictors, (2) utilizing only the initial (baseline) value of the feature as predictor, (3) using the last observed value as the predictors and (4) using a growth curve estimated from the features to create individual-specific prediction of growth curves as features. This study suggested the individual-specific prediction of the growth curve performed the best in terms of lowest error rate on an independent set of test data.