Assessing the impact of a test and vaccinate or remove badger intervention project on bovine tuberculosis levels in cattle herds

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic, zoonotic infection of domestic and wild animals caused mainly by Mycobacterium bovis. The Test and Vaccinate or Remove (TVR) project was a 5-year intervention (2014–2018) applied to Eurasian badgers (Meles meles) in a 100 km2 area of County Down, Northern Ireland. This observational study used routine bTB surveillance data of cattle to determine if the TVR intervention had any effect in reducing the infection at a herd level. The study design included the TVR treatment area (Banbridge) compared to the three adjacent 100 km2 areas (Dromore, Ballynahinch, and Castlewellan) which did not receive any badger intervention. Results showed that there were statistically lower bTB herd incidence rate ratios in the Banbridge TVR area compared to two of the other three comparison areas, but with bTB herd history and number of bTB infected cattle being the main explanatory variables along with Year. This finding is consistent with other study results conducted as part of the TVR project that suggested that the main transmission route for bTB in the area was cattle-to-cattle spread. This potentially makes any wildlife intervention in the TVR area of less relevance to bTB levels in cattle. It must also be noted that the scientific power of the TVR study (76%) was below the recommended 80%, meaning that results must be interpreted with caution. Even though statistical significance was achieved in two cattle-related risk factors, other potential risk factors may have also demonstrated significance in a larger study.