The economic and environmental analysis of solar energy development under climate impacts

Solar energy is a promising renewable technology to secure energy security and reduce emissions. While there are several solar energy studies, the intensified climate change has altered the climate pattern such as regional sunny hours and the strength of solar radiation. To investigate the impact of climate change on the regional solar energy potential, this study analyses the average sunny hour and solar radiation from monthly data from Jan. 2009 to Apr. 2021 and applies the ARIMA and ARDL models to predict the potential changes of these factors for the period of May 2021 to Dec. 2025. The results show the impact of climate change on solar energy generation potential is geographically different. Based on the historical data, the estimated electricity generation potential from conventional PV, PV/PCM, and PVT/PCM technologies are 2,636, 2,747, and 2868 kWh per m2, respectively. However, under climate impacts, their power potential will be greatly reduced to 2,422, 2,525, and 2636 kWh per m2. Specifically, the future power potential will decline up to 8%, and thus the policymakers should incorporate the climate influence on solar energy development and application to minimize power fluctuation.