Chir pine forest and pre-monsoon drought determine spatial, and temporal patterns of forest fires in Uttarakhand Himalaya

Associated with farming practices (between 300 and 2000 m elevations), human-ignited small, and patchy surface forest fires occur almost every year in Uttarakhand (between 28°43`– 31°27` N and 77°34`– 81°02`E; area 51,125 km 2 ), a Himalayan state of India. Using fire incidence data of 19 years (2002–2020) generated by MODIS, we analysed the factors which drive temporal and spatial patterns of fire in the region. The fire incidence data were organized by 24 forest divisions, the unit of state forest management and administration. The standardized regression model showed that pre-monsoon temperature (March to May or mid-June), proportional area of the forest division under chir pine ( Pinus roxburghii ) forest (positive effect), and pre-monsoon and winter precipitation (negative effect) accounted for 56% of the variance in fire incidence density (FID). The pre-monsoon temperature (warmer) and precipitation (lower) were significantly different in 2009, 2012, 2016 and 2019, the years with high FID (average 54.9 fire/100 km 2 ) than the rest of years with low FID (average 20.9 fire/100 km 2 ). During the two decades of warming, high FID (> 30 incidence per year /100 km 2 ) occurred after every three to four years, and fire peaks tended to increase with time. The study suggests that effective fire management can be attained by improving pre-monsoon precipitation forecasting and targeting forest compartments with a higher occurrence of chir pine and fire-vulnerable oaks. Furthermore, since fires are human-ignited, periodical analysis of changes in population distribution and communities’ dependence on forests would need to be conducted.