Effects of family income and conditional cash transfers on household food insecurity: evidence from a longitudinal study in Northeast Brazil

Food insecurity (FI) is a challenge to policy makers worldwide, who need to understand which polices and programmes are effective at overcoming FI. The present study aimed to examine the impact of family income and conditional cash transfers on changes in household FI status in a highly vulnerable municipality in Northeast Brazil. A population-based longitudinal cohort study among families in a municipality in the semi-arid area in Northeast Brazil (2011 and 2014). FI was estimated with the Brazilian Household Food Insecurity Measurement Scale (EBIA). The effects of family income and cash transfer on changes in FI were estimated using logistic regression models and the population-attributable risk fraction. Households in Cuité, Paraíba, Brazil. Household respondents interviewed in 2011 (n 358) and 2014 (n 326). There was a reduction in FI prevalence of 17·5 % across time; 24·5 % of families who were food insecure in 2011 became food secure in 2014. After adjustment, families that did not experience an increase in their total household income or a reduction in the cash transfer amount were at increased risk of persistent FI across time. If the cash transfer programme had not been in place, about 10 % of the families that switched from food insecure to food secure across time would have remained in FI instead. The decrease of FI occurred in an area of extreme climatic and social vulnerability. These changes were more related to the cash transfer than the increase in family income over time.