Derivation and validation of a blood biomarker score for 2-day mortality prediction from prehospital care: a multicenter, cohort, EMS-based study
Identifying potentially life-threatening diseases is a key challenge for emergency medical services. This study aims at examining the role of different prehospital biomarkers from point-of-care testing to derive and validate a score to detect 2-day in-hospital mortality. We conducted a prospective,...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Internal and emergency medicine 2023-09, Vol.18 (6), p.1797-1806 |
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| creator | Martín-Rodríguez, Francisco Vaquerizo-Villar, Fernando López-Izquierdo, Raúl Castro-Villamor, Miguel A. Sanz-García, Ancor del Pozo-Vegas, Carlos Hornero, Roberto |
| description | Identifying potentially life-threatening diseases is a key challenge for emergency medical services. This study aims at examining the role of different prehospital biomarkers from point-of-care testing to derive and validate a score to detect 2-day in-hospital mortality. We conducted a prospective, observational, prehospital, ongoing, and derivation—validation study in three Spanish provinces, in adults evacuated by ambulance and admitted to the emergency department. A total of 23 ambulance-based biomarkers were collected from each patient. A biomarker score based on logistic regression was fitted to predict 2-day mortality from an optimum subset of variables from prehospital blood analysis, obtained through an automated feature selection stage. 2806 cases were analyzed, with a median age of 68 (interquartile range 51–81), 42.3% of women, and a 2-day mortality rate of 5.5% (154 non-survivors). The blood biomarker score was constituted by the partial pressure of carbon dioxide, lactate, and creatinine. The score fitted with logistic regression using these biomarkers reached a high performance to predict 2-day mortality, with an AUC of 0.933 (95% CI 0.841–0.973). The following risk levels for 2-day mortality were identified from the score: low risk (score |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s11739-023-03268-x |
| format | Article |
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This study aims at examining the role of different prehospital biomarkers from point-of-care testing to derive and validate a score to detect 2-day in-hospital mortality. We conducted a prospective, observational, prehospital, ongoing, and derivation—validation study in three Spanish provinces, in adults evacuated by ambulance and admitted to the emergency department. A total of 23 ambulance-based biomarkers were collected from each patient. A biomarker score based on logistic regression was fitted to predict 2-day mortality from an optimum subset of variables from prehospital blood analysis, obtained through an automated feature selection stage. 2806 cases were analyzed, with a median age of 68 (interquartile range 51–81), 42.3% of women, and a 2-day mortality rate of 5.5% (154 non-survivors). The blood biomarker score was constituted by the partial pressure of carbon dioxide, lactate, and creatinine. The score fitted with logistic regression using these biomarkers reached a high performance to predict 2-day mortality, with an AUC of 0.933 (95% CI 0.841–0.973). The following risk levels for 2-day mortality were identified from the score: low risk (score < 1), where only 8.2% of non-survivors were assigned to; medium risk (1 ≤ score < 4); and high risk (score ≥ 4), where the 2-day mortality rate was 57.6%. The novel blood biomarker score provides an excellent association with 2-day in-hospital mortality, as well as real-time feedback on the metabolic-respiratory patient status. Thus, this score can help in the decision-making process at critical moments in life-threatening situations.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1828-0447</identifier><identifier>ISSN: 1970-9366</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1970-9366</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s11739-023-03268-x</identifier><identifier>PMID: 37079244</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Cham: Springer International Publishing</publisher><subject>Biomarkers ; Blood ; Carbon dioxide ; Creatinine ; Decision making ; EM - Original ; Emergency medical care ; Internal Medicine ; Medicine ; Medicine & Public Health ; Mortality ; Patients ; Regression analysis</subject><ispartof>Internal and emergency medicine, 2023-09, Vol.18 (6), p.1797-1806</ispartof><rights>The Author(s) 2023</rights><rights>2023. The Author(s).</rights><rights>The Author(s) 2023. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). 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This study aims at examining the role of different prehospital biomarkers from point-of-care testing to derive and validate a score to detect 2-day in-hospital mortality. We conducted a prospective, observational, prehospital, ongoing, and derivation—validation study in three Spanish provinces, in adults evacuated by ambulance and admitted to the emergency department. A total of 23 ambulance-based biomarkers were collected from each patient. A biomarker score based on logistic regression was fitted to predict 2-day mortality from an optimum subset of variables from prehospital blood analysis, obtained through an automated feature selection stage. 2806 cases were analyzed, with a median age of 68 (interquartile range 51–81), 42.3% of women, and a 2-day mortality rate of 5.5% (154 non-survivors). The blood biomarker score was constituted by the partial pressure of carbon dioxide, lactate, and creatinine. The score fitted with logistic regression using these biomarkers reached a high performance to predict 2-day mortality, with an AUC of 0.933 (95% CI 0.841–0.973). The following risk levels for 2-day mortality were identified from the score: low risk (score < 1), where only 8.2% of non-survivors were assigned to; medium risk (1 ≤ score < 4); and high risk (score ≥ 4), where the 2-day mortality rate was 57.6%. The novel blood biomarker score provides an excellent association with 2-day in-hospital mortality, as well as real-time feedback on the metabolic-respiratory patient status. 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| ispartof | Internal and emergency medicine, 2023-09, Vol.18 (6), p.1797-1806 |
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| source | SpringerNature Journals |
| subjects | Biomarkers Blood Carbon dioxide Creatinine Decision making EM - Original Emergency medical care Internal Medicine Medicine Medicine & Public Health Mortality Patients Regression analysis |
| title | Derivation and validation of a blood biomarker score for 2-day mortality prediction from prehospital care: a multicenter, cohort, EMS-based study |
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