Derivation and validation of a blood biomarker score for 2-day mortality prediction from prehospital care: a multicenter, cohort, EMS-based study

Identifying potentially life-threatening diseases is a key challenge for emergency medical services. This study aims at examining the role of different prehospital biomarkers from point-of-care testing to derive and validate a score to detect 2-day in-hospital mortality. We conducted a prospective, observational, prehospital, ongoing, and derivation—validation study in three Spanish provinces, in adults evacuated by ambulance and admitted to the emergency department. A total of 23 ambulance-based biomarkers were collected from each patient. A biomarker score based on logistic regression was fitted to predict 2-day mortality from an optimum subset of variables from prehospital blood analysis, obtained through an automated feature selection stage. 2806 cases were analyzed, with a median age of 68 (interquartile range 51–81), 42.3% of women, and a 2-day mortality rate of 5.5% (154 non-survivors). The blood biomarker score was constituted by the partial pressure of carbon dioxide, lactate, and creatinine. The score fitted with logistic regression using these biomarkers reached a high performance to predict 2-day mortality, with an AUC of 0.933 (95% CI 0.841–0.973). The following risk levels for 2-day mortality were identified from the score: low risk (score