Resolution of dose-response toxicity data for chemicals requiring metabolic activation: Example—Vinyl chloride

The toxicity of many chemicals results from biotransformation products formed from the chemical rather than from the chemical per se. In such cases, the incremental response may become diminishingly smaller with increasing dose or exposure because activation of the chemical to the toxic form follows apparent Michaelis—Menten rather than apparent first-order kinetics. To illustrate this concept, rats were exposed to concentrations ranging from 1.4 to 4600 ppm of vinyl chloride for 6 hr, and the total amount metabolized was determined. The amount metabolized followed apparent Michaelis—Menten kinetics. For rats, the logarithmic probability incidence of angiosarcoma versus the amount of vinyl chloride metabolized rather than the exposure concentration of vinyl chloride is linear. Assuming no threshold in spite of evidence to the contrary, extrapolation of the data below the range of doses causing experimentally observable responses predicted an incidence of 0.01% hepatic angiosarcoma in rats exposed to 4.6 ppm of vinyl chloride. Theoretical extension of the extrapolation to humans after adjusting for metabolic and body mass differences was undertaken. The theoretical extrapolation for man exposed daily for 8 hr to 1 ppm suggests an incidence of 1.5 per 100,000,000. This theoretical incidence, although a likely overestimate because of a less than predicted incidence in men exposed to 200 ppm and greater, as well as evidence for a threshold in rats, is less than that expected to occur spontaneously. The concepts evolved from this analysis reveals why pharmacokinetics must be considered in designing toxicology experiments as well as in interpretation of the resulting data.