Spatiotemporal nonlinear characteristics and threshold effects of China's water resources

China faces shortage of water resources, particularly in the context of rapid population growth and accelerating urbanization, making the changes in its water resources among the most pronounced globally. Additionally, the complex interplay between climate change and human activities leads to nonlinear and non-stationary patterns in China's water resources. This study utilizes high-resolution water storage monitoring data to comprehensively analyze the nonlinear changes in water storage and its relationships with human footprint, precipitation, and temperature, revealing the complex dynamics of water storage changes across China. This study used advanced data analysis techniques to identify the turning points where water storage undergoes nonlinear changes, with categories of nonlinear changes that first decrease then increase and those that first increase then decrease together accounting for 55.62% of the observations. The northeastern and western fringe areas of China are hotspots for these nonlinear changes, and the analysis identifies 2019 as a year with a high frequency of turning points. The piecewise linear regression analysis found that when the human footprint exceeds a specific threshold, its negative impact on water storage significantly intensifies; when precipitation and temperature exceed certain thresholds, their impact on water storage shifts from negative to positive. These findings not only reveal the complex spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of water storage change turning points across China but also emphasize that water resource management strategies in China and globally need to adopt more comprehensive and dynamic approaches in the context of global climate change. To meet future challenges, it is essential to integrate multiple variables and develop flexible, adaptive management strategies to ensure the sustainable use and effective management of water resources. •High-resolution water storage data (2003–2020) reveal nonlinear changes across different regions and times in China.•Nonlinear changes in water storage are in China, with Positive and Negative Reversal accounting for 55.62%.•2019 had frequent turning points in water storage, with hotspots in northeastern and western border areas.•Precipitation and temperature shift from negative to positive correlations with water storage after exceeding thresholds.