The epidemiological trends and predictions of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and gastroesophageal junction carcinoma: an Australian population-based study

Gastroesophageal junction carcinoma (GEJC) and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) are increasing in Australia and other Western countries. We aimed to investigate past trends and predict the future direction of GEJC and ESCC cases. Data on GEJC and ESCC were extracted from the Australian Cancer Database, and the National Mortality Database for the Australian states of Victoria, Queensland, Tasmania, and the Australian Capital Territory. The new number of cases were predicted up to 2039 by fitting a least squares linear regression using the Australian incidence rates trend from 2009 to 2018. Past trends were analyzed for prevalence and mortality. Kaplan-Meier curves generated the survival trend for up to 10 years. Between 2009 and 2018, the overall incidences of GEJC showed an increasing trend (annual change [β ] = 0.87, P