Rapid assessment of the levels, nature, and dynamics of sustainability for the United Kingdom 1992-2015 from the doughnut model perspective

The Doughnut model's application to determine sustainability outcomes has thus far been primarily based upon indirect quantitative-based approaches. Therefore, the challenge has been how to directly determine and evaluate sustainability outcomes from a Doughnut-based assessment. In this paper, a direct determination and evaluation of the sustainability of the United Kingdom's environment-human system for the period 1992-2015 from a Doughnut-based assessment is conducted, based upon the application of the Sustainability Dynamics Framework (SDF). The fundamental methodology adopted consisted of: (i). Development of a new scoring criteria framework to convert the indicator-threshold ratios of biophysical boundaries and social threshold indicators into scores; (ii). Determination of the annual indicated values of the Environment (E), Human Needs and Interests (HNI), and Sustainability (S); (iii). Fourier analysis to indicatively determine the dynamics of the UK environment-human system; and (iv). Dynamic modelling of the dynamics of Sustainability (S), Total capital (K), the Earth System (N-A) and dE/dt occurring. The results indicate that the UK's environment-human system was consistent with very weak sustainability throughout the specified period, based upon obtained S-values which were within the range of [+0.075 ≤ S(t) ≤ +0.158] over the specified period. This was due to a declining and fundamentally compromised environmental system caused by the significant exceedance of the biophysical boundaries, and the near-total to total fulfilment of the social thresholds. These outcomes were further supported by the Fourier transformation plots, which indicated increasing dynamic perturbations occurring within the UK environment-human system over the specified period. The paper concludes that the UK will not achieve a state consistent with operating within the safe and just operating space (SJOS), if it continues along its current development pathway. Without fundamental and transformative actions, then there is the realistic possibility of a systemic crisis occurring due to the UK's operating considerably beyond its SJOS.