Generation and external validation of a histological transformation risk model for patients with follicular lymphoma

Follicular lymphoma (FL) is the most frequent indolent lymphoma. 10-15% of patients suffer histological transformation (HT) to a more aggressive lymphoma, usually diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL). This study aimed to validate and improve a genetic risk model to predict HT at diagnosis. We collected mutational data from diagnosis biopsies of 64 FL patients. We combined them with the data from a previously published cohort (total n = 104, 62 from non-transformed, and 42 from patients who did transform to DLBCL). This combined cohort was used to develop a nomogram to estimate the risk of HT. Prognostic mutated genes and clinical variables were assessed using Cox regression analysis to generate a risk model. The model was internally validated by bootstrapping and externally validated in an independent cohort. Its performance was evaluated using a concordance index and a calibration curve. The clinicogenetic nomogram included the mutational status of three genes (HIST1HE1, KMT2D, and TNFSR14) and high-risk FLIPI and predicted HT with a concordance index of 0.746. Patients were classified as being at low or high risk of transformation. The probability HT function at 24 months was 0.90 in the low-risk group vs. 0.51 in the high-risk group and, at 60 months, 0.69 vs. 0.15, respectively. In the external validation cohort, the probability HT function in the low-risk group was 0.86 vs. 0.54 in the high-risk group at 24 months, and 0.71 vs. 0.32 at 60 months. The concordance index in the external cohort was 0.552. In conclusion, we propose a clinicogenetic risk model to predict FL HT to DLBLC, combining genetic alterations in HIST1H1E, KMT2D, and TNFRSF14 genes and clinical features (FLIPI) at diagnosis. This model could improve the management of FL patients and allow treatment strategies that would prevent or delay transformation.