Trade and dietary preferences can determine micronutrient security in the United Kingdom

Food production, dietary choices, climate change, trade tariffs and future responses to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are some of the factors affecting global food security. Here we examine how micronutrient security has varied in the United Kingdom from 1961 to 2017, before Brexit, taking supply and demand driver changes into account. We also introduce future scenarios to see how a more plant-based diet and/or differing trade arrangement post-European Union exit and COVID-19 pandemic could affect the supply of nutrients. Results show that trading agreements have affected several key micronutrients during the past 60 years and are likely to be influential in a post-Brexit United Kingdom. Changes in dietary patterns, which influence how much animal- and plant-based products are consumed, have also affected micronutrient security and are likely to do so in the future with increased interest in consuming a more plant-based diet. Micronutrient availability is key to future global food security. A macroanalysis reveals how sources of micronutrients and countries of origin have varied in the United Kingdom over the six decades before Brexit. Through scenario analysis, the effects of trade and dietary choices on nutrient supply and demand are also explored.