The Long-Term Survival Outcome in Older Patients with Different Pathological Types of Chronic Kidney Disease

Abstract Introduction: Chronic kidney diseases (CKDs) are prevalent in older people, and renal pathological manifestations are important for diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis. However, the long-term survival outcome and risk factors for older CKD patients with different pathological types are not fully understood and need to be further investigated. Methods: Medical data were recorded and all-cause mortality was followed up in patients who underwent renal biopsy diagnosed in Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital from 2005 to 2015. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to identify the incidence of survival outcomes. Multivariate Cox regression models and nomograms were applied to analyze pathological types and other factors for overall survival outcomes. Results: 368 cases were included and the median follow-up was 85 (46.5, 111) months. Overall mortality was 35.6%. The highest mortality was in the mesangioproliferative glomerulonephritis (MPGN) group (88.9%), followed by amyloidosis (AMY) group (84.6%), and the lowest mortality was in the minimal change disease (MCD) group (21.9%). Moreover, multivariate Cox regression model showed that survival times of MPGN {hazard ratio (HR) = 8.215 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.735–24.674), p < 0.001} and AMY (HR = 6.130 [95% CI: 2.219–16.94], p < 0.001) were significantly shorter than MCD. In addition, age, lower baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and cerebrovascular accidents (CVA)/transient ischemic attack (TIA), MPGN, and AMY were independent risk factors for the mortality of older patients with CKD. Conclusion: The long-term survival outcome of older CKD patients showed differences among different pathological types, and MPGN, AMY, age, baseline eGFR, CVA/TIA, and COPD were independent predictors for mortality.