Comprehensive analysis of carbon emissions, economic growth, and employment from the perspective of industrial restructuring: a case study of China

Industrial restructuring is a significant measure for low-carbon transition. In principle, carbon emissions can be effectively reduced by limiting the output of high-emission sectors; however, the socio-economic effects of the sectors should also be considered. Moreover, owing to the limitations of the method or data, the interactions between households and production sectors have been neglected in the study of industrial restructuring, resulting in an incomplete and potentially biased understanding of the role of households. To fill this gap, we applied a semi-closed input–output model to identify key sectors by economic and emission linkages and measure the employment impacts (direct, indirect, and induced) of reduced carbon emissions. The empirical results for China in 2010–2018 showed that relatively small changes in key emission sectors would significantly affect the economic growth, and reduced carbon emissions reduction would generally lead to high job losses. Promoting labor-intensive sectors, particularly the service sector, is conducive to achieving a “multi-win” situation for economic development, carbon emission reductions, and stable employment. Furthermore, our results highlight the significance of households: expanding consumption and increasing household income can bring multiple benefits, such as economic growth, job creation, and low carbon emissions. These findings can provide useful information for identifying the optimized path of restructuring and helping achieve the sustainable development of the environment, economy, and society.