Prediction of Balance Perturbations and Falls on Stairs in Older People Using a Biomechanical Profiling Approach: A 12-Month Longitudinal Study

Abstract Background Stair falls are a major health problem for older people, but presently, there are no specific screening tools for stair fall prediction. The purpose of the present study was to investigate whether stair fallers could be differentiated from nonfallers by biomechanical risk factors or physical/psychological parameters and to establish the biomechanical stepping profile posing the greatest risk for a stair fall. Methods Eighty-seven older adults (age: 72.1 ± 5.2 years) negotiated an instrumented seven-step staircase and performed a range of physical/psychological tasks. k-Means clustering was used to profile the overall stair negotiation behavior with biomechanical parameters indicative of fall risk as input. Falls and events of balance perturbation (combined “hazardous events”) were then monitored during a 12-month follow-up. Cox-regression analysis was performed to examine whether physical/psychological parameters or biomechanical outcome measures could predict future hazardous events. Kaplan–Meier survival curves were obtained to identify the stepping strategy posing a risk for a hazardous event. Results Physical/psychological parameters did not predict hazardous events and the commonly used Fall Risk Assessment Tool classified only 1/17 stair fallers at risk for a fall. Single biomechanical risk factors could not predict hazardous events on stairs either. On the contrary, two particular clusters identified by the stepping profiling method in stair ascent were linked with hazardous events. Conclusion This highlights the potential of the stepping profiling method to predict stair fall risk in older adults against the limited predictability of single-parameter approaches currently used as screening tools.