Poster — Thur Eve — 55: Monte Carlo simulations of variations in planned dose distributions in a prostate patient population

Clinical outcome studies with clear and objective endpoints are necessary to make informed radiotherapy treatment decisions. Commonly, clinical outcomes are established after lengthy and costly clinical trials are performed and the data are analyzed and published. One the challenges with obtaining meaningful data from clinical trials is that by the time the information gets to the medical profession the results may be less clinically relevant than when the trial began, An alternative approach is to estimate clinical outcomes through patient population modeling. We are developing a mathematical tool that uses Monte Carlo techniques to simulate variations in planned and delivered dose distributions of prostate patients receiving radiotherapy. Ultimately, our simulation will calculate a distribution of Tumor Control Probabilities (TCPs) for a population of patients treated under a given protocol. Such distributions can serve as a metric for comparing different treatment modalities, planning and setup approaches, and machine parameter settings or tolerances with respect to outcomes on broad patient populations. It may also help researchers understand differences one might expect to find before actually doing the clinical trial. As a first step and for the focus of this abstract we wanted to see if we could answer the question: “Can a population of dose distributions of prostate patients be accurately modeled by a set of randomly generated Gaussian functions?” Our results have demonstrated that using a set of randomly generated Gaussian functions can simulate a distribution of prostate patients.