Scaling law characterizing the dynamics of the transition of HIV-1 to error catastrophe

Increasing the mutation rate, of viruses above a threshold, has been predicted to trigger a catastrophic loss of viral genetic information and is being explored as a novel intervention strategy. Here, we examine the dynamics of this transition using stochastic simulations mimicking within-host HIV-1 evolution. We find a scaling law governing the characteristic time of the transition: The law is robust to variations in underlying evolutionary forces and presents guidelines for treatment of HIV-1 infection with mutagens. We estimate that many years of treatment would be required before HIV-1 can suffer an error catastrophe.