Risk prediction in patients undergoing elective endovascular repair of an abdominal aortic aneurysm

Abstract Objectives. The aim of this study was to retrospectively evaluate three risk scoring methods in predicting outcome after elective endovascular repair of an abdominal aortic aneurysm. Design. A Zenith stent graft was employed in 205 patients during years 2001-2005. Results. The 30-day postop...

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Veröffentlicht in:Scandinavian cardiovascular journal : SCJ 2010, Vol.44 (2), p.125-128
Hauptverfasser: Nevala, Terhi, Biancari, Fausto, Perälä, Jukka, Manninen, Hannu, Aho, Pekka-Sakari, Matsi, Pekka, Mäkinen, Kimmo, Roth, Wolf-Dieter, Ylönen, Kari, Lepäntalo, Mauri
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container_end_page 128
container_issue 2
container_start_page 125
container_title Scandinavian cardiovascular journal : SCJ
container_volume 44
creator Nevala, Terhi
Biancari, Fausto
Perälä, Jukka
Manninen, Hannu
Aho, Pekka-Sakari
Matsi, Pekka
Mäkinen, Kimmo
Roth, Wolf-Dieter
Ylönen, Kari
Lepäntalo, Mauri
description Abstract Objectives. The aim of this study was to retrospectively evaluate three risk scoring methods in predicting outcome after elective endovascular repair of an abdominal aortic aneurysm. Design. A Zenith stent graft was employed in 205 patients during years 2001-2005. Results. The 30-day postoperative mortality rate was 2.9%. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis showed that the Glasgow aneurysm score (GAS) (AUC: 0.843, p=0.004) and the Giles' score (AUC 0.815, p=0.009) had a rather large area under the curve in predicting 30-day mortality rate. The modified Leiden score was much less accurate (AUC: 0.594). The best cut-off value for the GAS in predicting 30-day mortality was 90 (0.6% vs. 17.9%, p
doi_str_mv 10.3109/14017430903420590
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The aim of this study was to retrospectively evaluate three risk scoring methods in predicting outcome after elective endovascular repair of an abdominal aortic aneurysm. Design. A Zenith stent graft was employed in 205 patients during years 2001-2005. Results. The 30-day postoperative mortality rate was 2.9%. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis showed that the Glasgow aneurysm score (GAS) (AUC: 0.843, p=0.004) and the Giles' score (AUC 0.815, p=0.009) had a rather large area under the curve in predicting 30-day mortality rate. The modified Leiden score was much less accurate (AUC: 0.594). The best cut-off value for the GAS in predicting 30-day mortality was 90 (0.6% vs. 17.9%, p&lt;0.0001). Patients with a GAS ≥ 90 had a 4-year survival rate of 56.8%, whereas it was 78.5% among those with a lower GAS (p = 0.001).The best cut-off value for the Giles' score was 11 (1.3% vs. 8.3%, p&lt;0.0001). Patients with a Giles' score ≥ 11 had a 4-year survival rate of 63.9%, whereas it was 79.0% among those with a lower score (p = 0.016). Conclusions. The GAS and Giles' risk scoring methods are good predictors of poor immediate and late outcome after EVAR.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1401-7431</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1651-2006</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.3109/14017430903420590</identifier><identifier>PMID: 19961285</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>England: Informa UK Ltd. 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The aim of this study was to retrospectively evaluate three risk scoring methods in predicting outcome after elective endovascular repair of an abdominal aortic aneurysm. Design. A Zenith stent graft was employed in 205 patients during years 2001-2005. Results. The 30-day postoperative mortality rate was 2.9%. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis showed that the Glasgow aneurysm score (GAS) (AUC: 0.843, p=0.004) and the Giles' score (AUC 0.815, p=0.009) had a rather large area under the curve in predicting 30-day mortality rate. The modified Leiden score was much less accurate (AUC: 0.594). The best cut-off value for the GAS in predicting 30-day mortality was 90 (0.6% vs. 17.9%, p&lt;0.0001). Patients with a GAS ≥ 90 had a 4-year survival rate of 56.8%, whereas it was 78.5% among those with a lower GAS (p = 0.001).The best cut-off value for the Giles' score was 11 (1.3% vs. 8.3%, p&lt;0.0001). Patients with a Giles' score ≥ 11 had a 4-year survival rate of 63.9%, whereas it was 79.0% among those with a lower score (p = 0.016). Conclusions. The GAS and Giles' risk scoring methods are good predictors of poor immediate and late outcome after EVAR.</description><subject>Abdominal aortic aneurysm</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Aged, 80 and over</subject><subject>Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal - mortality</subject><subject>Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal - surgery</subject><subject>Blood Vessel Prosthesis</subject><subject>Blood Vessel Prosthesis Implantation - adverse effects</subject><subject>Blood Vessel Prosthesis Implantation - methods</subject><subject>Blood Vessel Prosthesis Implantation - mortality</subject><subject>Elective Surgical Procedures</subject><subject>endovascular</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Health Status Indicators</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Kaplan-Meier Estimate</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>mortality</subject><subject>Odds Ratio</subject><subject>Predictive Value of Tests</subject><subject>Prosthesis Design</subject><subject>Retrospective Studies</subject><subject>risk adjustment</subject><subject>Risk Assessment</subject><subject>Risk Factors</subject><subject>ROC Curve</subject><subject>scoring system</subject><subject>stent graft</subject><subject>Stents</subject><subject>Time Factors</subject><subject>Treatment Outcome</subject><issn>1401-7431</issn><issn>1651-2006</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2010</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kN1rFTEQxRdR7If-Ab5I3nxazefdBH2RolYoCEWfl9xk0qZmk3Wy23L_-6bcCyLSPs0w8zuHw-m6N4y-F4yaD0xSNkhBDRWSU2Xos-6YbRTrOaWb521v_74B7Kg7qfWGUqa0Yi-7I2bMhnGtjjt3GetvMiP46JZYMomZzHaJkJdK1uwBr0rMVwQStP8tEMi-3Nrq1mSRIMw2IimB2Ezs1pcpZpuILbhE126w4q5Or7oXwaYKrw_ztPv19cvPs_P-4se372efL3onqVp6BsZpbYKggnOumdhq6eVgqDRaaMYs5YPn3g9ghBpCy0-V5zRsjA5cA4jT7t3ed8byZ4W6jFOsDlJqQcpax0EIruSgZSPZnnRYakUI44xxsrgbGR0fqh3_q7Zp3h7c1-0E_q_i0GUDPu2BmEPByd4VTH5c7C4VDGizi_XB-3H_j__Ir8Gm5dpZhPGmrNh6rU-kuwdK2ZkE</recordid><startdate>2010</startdate><enddate>2010</enddate><creator>Nevala, Terhi</creator><creator>Biancari, Fausto</creator><creator>Perälä, Jukka</creator><creator>Manninen, Hannu</creator><creator>Aho, Pekka-Sakari</creator><creator>Matsi, Pekka</creator><creator>Mäkinen, Kimmo</creator><creator>Roth, Wolf-Dieter</creator><creator>Ylönen, Kari</creator><creator>Lepäntalo, Mauri</creator><general>Informa UK Ltd. (Informa Healthcare, Taylor &amp; Francis AS)</general><general>Taylor &amp; Francis</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7X8</scope></search><sort><creationdate>2010</creationdate><title>Risk prediction in patients undergoing elective endovascular repair of an abdominal aortic aneurysm</title><author>Nevala, Terhi ; Biancari, Fausto ; Perälä, Jukka ; Manninen, Hannu ; Aho, Pekka-Sakari ; Matsi, Pekka ; Mäkinen, Kimmo ; Roth, Wolf-Dieter ; Ylönen, Kari ; Lepäntalo, Mauri</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c405t-1e9c889f303222813b84d47904983811a027d2dd7e9357f12805d20f698f28ee3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2010</creationdate><topic>Abdominal aortic aneurysm</topic><topic>Aged</topic><topic>Aged, 80 and over</topic><topic>Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal - mortality</topic><topic>Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal - surgery</topic><topic>Blood Vessel Prosthesis</topic><topic>Blood Vessel Prosthesis Implantation - adverse effects</topic><topic>Blood Vessel Prosthesis Implantation - methods</topic><topic>Blood Vessel Prosthesis Implantation - mortality</topic><topic>Elective Surgical Procedures</topic><topic>endovascular</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Health Status Indicators</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Kaplan-Meier Estimate</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>mortality</topic><topic>Odds Ratio</topic><topic>Predictive Value of Tests</topic><topic>Prosthesis Design</topic><topic>Retrospective Studies</topic><topic>risk adjustment</topic><topic>Risk Assessment</topic><topic>Risk Factors</topic><topic>ROC Curve</topic><topic>scoring system</topic><topic>stent graft</topic><topic>Stents</topic><topic>Time Factors</topic><topic>Treatment Outcome</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Nevala, Terhi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Biancari, Fausto</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Perälä, Jukka</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Manninen, Hannu</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Aho, Pekka-Sakari</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Matsi, Pekka</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mäkinen, Kimmo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Roth, Wolf-Dieter</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ylönen, Kari</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lepäntalo, Mauri</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>Scandinavian cardiovascular journal : SCJ</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Nevala, Terhi</au><au>Biancari, Fausto</au><au>Perälä, Jukka</au><au>Manninen, Hannu</au><au>Aho, Pekka-Sakari</au><au>Matsi, Pekka</au><au>Mäkinen, Kimmo</au><au>Roth, Wolf-Dieter</au><au>Ylönen, Kari</au><au>Lepäntalo, Mauri</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Risk prediction in patients undergoing elective endovascular repair of an abdominal aortic aneurysm</atitle><jtitle>Scandinavian cardiovascular journal : SCJ</jtitle><addtitle>Scand Cardiovasc J</addtitle><date>2010</date><risdate>2010</risdate><volume>44</volume><issue>2</issue><spage>125</spage><epage>128</epage><pages>125-128</pages><issn>1401-7431</issn><eissn>1651-2006</eissn><abstract>Abstract Objectives. The aim of this study was to retrospectively evaluate three risk scoring methods in predicting outcome after elective endovascular repair of an abdominal aortic aneurysm. Design. A Zenith stent graft was employed in 205 patients during years 2001-2005. Results. The 30-day postoperative mortality rate was 2.9%. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis showed that the Glasgow aneurysm score (GAS) (AUC: 0.843, p=0.004) and the Giles' score (AUC 0.815, p=0.009) had a rather large area under the curve in predicting 30-day mortality rate. The modified Leiden score was much less accurate (AUC: 0.594). The best cut-off value for the GAS in predicting 30-day mortality was 90 (0.6% vs. 17.9%, p&lt;0.0001). Patients with a GAS ≥ 90 had a 4-year survival rate of 56.8%, whereas it was 78.5% among those with a lower GAS (p = 0.001).The best cut-off value for the Giles' score was 11 (1.3% vs. 8.3%, p&lt;0.0001). Patients with a Giles' score ≥ 11 had a 4-year survival rate of 63.9%, whereas it was 79.0% among those with a lower score (p = 0.016). Conclusions. The GAS and Giles' risk scoring methods are good predictors of poor immediate and late outcome after EVAR.</abstract><cop>England</cop><pub>Informa UK Ltd. (Informa Healthcare, Taylor &amp; Francis AS)</pub><pmid>19961285</pmid><doi>10.3109/14017430903420590</doi><tpages>4</tpages></addata></record>
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ispartof Scandinavian cardiovascular journal : SCJ, 2010, Vol.44 (2), p.125-128
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source MEDLINE; EZB-FREE-00999 freely available EZB journals
subjects Abdominal aortic aneurysm
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal - mortality
Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal - surgery
Blood Vessel Prosthesis
Blood Vessel Prosthesis Implantation - adverse effects
Blood Vessel Prosthesis Implantation - methods
Blood Vessel Prosthesis Implantation - mortality
Elective Surgical Procedures
endovascular
Female
Health Status Indicators
Humans
Kaplan-Meier Estimate
Male
mortality
Odds Ratio
Predictive Value of Tests
Prosthesis Design
Retrospective Studies
risk adjustment
Risk Assessment
Risk Factors
ROC Curve
scoring system
stent graft
Stents
Time Factors
Treatment Outcome
title Risk prediction in patients undergoing elective endovascular repair of an abdominal aortic aneurysm
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