Evaluation using the SWAT model of the effects of land use land cover changes on hydrological processes in the Gala Lake Basin, Turkey

Changes in hydrological processes in watersheds are triggered by various factors, including land use land cover changes (LULCC) emerging from human activities. Hence, it is crucial to elucidate the interaction among hydrological processes to improve sustainable water management plans. The current study explored the effects of LULCC on hydrological processes in the Gala Lake catchment over a 30‐year temporal period. In this context, to evaluate LULCC, land cover maps were obtained using the supervised classification method with Landsat images (5 TM, 7 ETM+, 8 OLI) of 1993, 2008, and 2023. Hydrological processes were assessed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a commonly applied eco‐hydrological model. The model was utilized to evaluate the potential effect of LULCC on processes like surface runoff, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and erosion. Between 1993 and 2023, significant LULCC have been observed in the study area. There has been a decrease of 4.3%, 1%, 1.6%, and 5.3% in agricultural lands, forested lands, inland marshes, and pasture lands, respectively, while artificial surfaces, rice fields, and water bodies have seen an increase of 7%, 3.4%, and 1.9%, respectively. The potential effects of these changes were observed as a decrease in the runoff, a decrease in permeability, and an increase in processes such as evapotranspiration and erosion throughout the basin and sub‐basin. In general, LULCC significantly affect the hydrological status of the catchment. Therefore, establishing different conservation and utilization strategies that consider land use dynamics to maintain the resilience of ecosystems in the basins is vital in the sustainable management of water resources.