Limitations and Opportunities in Air Force Risk Assessments

Current risk assessment methodology employed by the US Air Force has the potential for uncertainty - but increased education, training, and data collection frequency alongside improved logic models could potentially decrease subjectivity and bias. The current methodology for risk assessment and project prioritization has the Air Force on track to have a $70 billion sustainment and repair backlog by 2047. In the Air Force's risk assessment model, uncertainty and bias diminish the objectivity of the method and provide a false sense of security that a data-driven solution is being employed. Steps should be taken to improve the data and methods used to calculate risk. With these recommendations, the calculation of risk for facility projects within Air Force asset management would be improved. Ultimately, to implement these suggestions, continuing research is necessary for targeted and precise applications of these changes to provide accurate assessments to aid decision-makers.