A new leading indicator: workers recently laid off
''Job losers on layoff'' has been used as an indicator in business cycle analysis for some time, but a better indicator might be data on recent job losers on layoff, rather than all workers on layoff. The recent unemployed consist of those laid off within the last 5 weeks and sti...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Monthly labor review 1986-05, Vol.109 (5), p.35-37 |
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| creator | Moore, Geoffrey H. Cullity, John P. |
| description | ''Job losers on layoff'' has been used as an indicator in business cycle analysis for some time, but a better indicator might be data on recent job losers on layoff, rather than all workers on layoff. The recent unemployed consist of those laid off within the last 5 weeks and still unemployed at the time of the household survey. Compared with the total layoff rate, the new indicator has longer leads at several turns. The new indicator is relatively well-placed among its competitors as far as other important indicator characteristics are concerned, such as prompt availability and eliminating extra cycles and erratic movements. When compared with employment, the new indicator leads at both peaks and troughs, but by much longer intervals at peaks. The Center for International Business Cycle Research has revised its leading employment index to include the new layoff rate since 1969 and the manufacturing layoff rate before 1969. |
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The recent unemployed consist of those laid off within the last 5 weeks and still unemployed at the time of the household survey. Compared with the total layoff rate, the new indicator has longer leads at several turns. The new indicator is relatively well-placed among its competitors as far as other important indicator characteristics are concerned, such as prompt availability and eliminating extra cycles and erratic movements. When compared with employment, the new indicator leads at both peaks and troughs, but by much longer intervals at peaks. The Center for International Business Cycle Research has revised its leading employment index to include the new layoff rate since 1969 and the manufacturing layoff rate before 1969.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0098-1818</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1937-4658</identifier><identifier>CODEN: MLARAO</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Washington: United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics</publisher><subject>Business cycles ; Business forecasts ; Communications ; Economic analysis ; Economic aspects ; Economic fluctuations ; Economic forecasting ; Economic indicators ; Employment ; Employment indices ; Innovations ; Job Layoff ; Layoffs ; Leading indicators ; Manufacturing industries ; Methods ; Rates ; Research universities ; Statistical data ; Statistics ; Studies ; Unemployment ; Unemployment insurance</subject><ispartof>Monthly labor review, 1986-05, Vol.109 (5), p.35-37</ispartof><rights>COPYRIGHT 1986 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics</rights><rights>COPYRIGHT 1986 Superintendent of Documents</rights><rights>Copyright Superintendent of Documents May 1986</rights><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/41842699$$EPDF$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/41842699$$EHTML$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,799,27848,57995,58228</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Moore, Geoffrey H.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cullity, John P.</creatorcontrib><title>A new leading indicator: workers recently laid off</title><title>Monthly labor review</title><addtitle>Monthly Labor Review</addtitle><description>''Job losers on layoff'' has been used as an indicator in business cycle analysis for some time, but a better indicator might be data on recent job losers on layoff, rather than all workers on layoff. The recent unemployed consist of those laid off within the last 5 weeks and still unemployed at the time of the household survey. Compared with the total layoff rate, the new indicator has longer leads at several turns. The new indicator is relatively well-placed among its competitors as far as other important indicator characteristics are concerned, such as prompt availability and eliminating extra cycles and erratic movements. When compared with employment, the new indicator leads at both peaks and troughs, but by much longer intervals at peaks. 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The recent unemployed consist of those laid off within the last 5 weeks and still unemployed at the time of the household survey. Compared with the total layoff rate, the new indicator has longer leads at several turns. The new indicator is relatively well-placed among its competitors as far as other important indicator characteristics are concerned, such as prompt availability and eliminating extra cycles and erratic movements. When compared with employment, the new indicator leads at both peaks and troughs, but by much longer intervals at peaks. The Center for International Business Cycle Research has revised its leading employment index to include the new layoff rate since 1969 and the manufacturing layoff rate before 1969.</abstract><cop>Washington</cop><pub>United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics</pub><tpages>3</tpages></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | Monthly labor review, 1986-05, Vol.109 (5), p.35-37 |
| issn | 0098-1818 1937-4658 |
| language | eng |
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| source | Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek - Frei zugängliche E-Journals; HeinOnline Law Journal Library; Business Source Complete; Periodicals Index Online; Jstor Complete Legacy; Education Source |
| subjects | Business cycles Business forecasts Communications Economic analysis Economic aspects Economic fluctuations Economic forecasting Economic indicators Employment Employment indices Innovations Job Layoff Layoffs Leading indicators Manufacturing industries Methods Rates Research universities Statistical data Statistics Studies Unemployment Unemployment insurance |
| title | A new leading indicator: workers recently laid off |
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