A new leading indicator: workers recently laid off

''Job losers on layoff'' has been used as an indicator in business cycle analysis for some time, but a better indicator might be data on recent job losers on layoff, rather than all workers on layoff. The recent unemployed consist of those laid off within the last 5 weeks and still unemployed at the time of the household survey. Compared with the total layoff rate, the new indicator has longer leads at several turns. The new indicator is relatively well-placed among its competitors as far as other important indicator characteristics are concerned, such as prompt availability and eliminating extra cycles and erratic movements. When compared with employment, the new indicator leads at both peaks and troughs, but by much longer intervals at peaks. The Center for International Business Cycle Research has revised its leading employment index to include the new layoff rate since 1969 and the manufacturing layoff rate before 1969.