The Hunt Continues

In this third column in the Full Disclosure series, the authors move upstream in the mortgage delinquency cycle and focus on the trends and characteristics of the universe of loans that are relatively new entrants to the problem stages of default. There are many ways to determine market trends and forecast performance. One effective way to demonstrate borrower-distress levels at early stages of delinquency is to study the percentage and number of current loans that have migrated to a 60-plus-day delinquency status, including those loans currently in foreclosure. From a loan-count perspective, they extrapolate the overall industry performance data from their servicing database that covers approximately 70% of the market. Creating stability in the housing and mortgage markets is the obvious goal of the significant public policy and industry efforts framed and implemented over the past 24 months. But achieving this goal is significantly complicated by the ever-changing universe of troubled borrowers.