Poverty in New York City, 1969-99: the influence of demographic change, income growth, and income inequality

The four-year rise in the US poverty rate that began with the recession of 2001 and the images of devastation from New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina has led to a renewed interest in poverty among researchers and policymakers. This study examines the effect of the demographic factors of race, nativity, family structure, and educational attainment as well as the economic factors of income growth, income inequality, and earnings inequality on changes in the city's poverty rate. The study finds that demographic factors, coupled with a sharp drop in mean family income, played a leading role in the dramatic rise in the New York City poverty rate from 1969 to 1979. However, from 1979 to 1999 -- a period marked by a stable but stubbornly high poverty rate -- growing income inequality largely explains why an impressive rebound in mean family income did not lead to a decline in the share of city residents living below the poverty line.