Maintaining Distance from Iran

[Barack Obama]'s June 23 statement also marks the first mention of "consequences" if the Iranian government continues its campaign of oppression and violence against [Mousavi]'s supporters. This fatal over-reach may provide the Western-paranoid [Mahmoud Ahmadinejad] clique with precisely the ammunition it needs to marginalize Mousavi's growing credibility outside of major cities. Iran proves an exasperating foreign policy case for American leaders. Despite wide unrest and displeasure with the government on matters ranging from domestic handling of the economy to Iran's increasing international isolation, Ahmadinejad retains a core of support in rural villages. This support derives in large part from the political narrative developed after the collapse of the Shah in 1979 - that of a "lesser evil" government protecting Iran from takeover by hostile Western "puppets." For all his faults, Ahmadinejad has been extremely effective in using this "lesser evil" narrative to his political advantage by tethering personal political initiatives to the cart of "independence" from the West. He speaks of Iran's nuclear development in terms of energy independence and military security. Although alienating for some moderate Iranians, the constant bellicosity toward Israel secures a political base that still legitimately fears a Jewish/Western anti-Iranian alliance. Paranoia over Western schemes to hogtie Iranian power runs so deep that even reformist candidate Mousavi supports continuing Iran's nuclear program. Ahmadinejad may take more extreme positions than most Iranians are comfortable with, the theory goes, but at least they can be certain that he is loyal to Iran.