The asymmetric fragmentation operator applied to meteo-limnological time series in a tropical reservoir

Ecological data are sometimes difficult to analyze due to the intrinsic complexity of natural systems containing nonlinear equations. Efficient methods are required to better understand the information extracted from complex processes and to support the development of ecological prediction models. In this context, two techniques were used in this work to analyze meteo-limnological time series from a tropical reservoir: the Wavelet Transform (WT) and the Asymmetric Fragmentation Operator (AFO). The in situ data is based on a dataset acquired from an Eulerian system deployed in Manso Reservoir, Brazil, in 2007. The results indicated that the AFO method outperformed the WT method in the analysis of ecological parameters. The pioneering use of AFO in this sort of study proved to be a useful tool to study the variability of water quality parameters. ► The AFO is an effective estimator for prediction of complex regimes series. ► AFO explain a chlorophyll-α peak through analysis of meteo-limnological parameters. ► AFO is indicated to analyze time-series that has a short time span. ► AFO elucidates the nature of the processes and indirect effects in the ecosystem.