Estimation of the evacuation time in an emergency situation in hospitals

► A prediction model is presented that estimates the evacuation time in an emergency situation for hospitals. ► The model is generic enough to be used in various hospital settings. ► The major advantage of the model is that the computation time is very short and it does not need a lengthy and costly design. ► The results are very similar to a designed simulation model. In this paper, a prediction model is presented that estimates the evacuation time in an emergency situation for hospitals. The model is generic enough to be used in various hospital settings. This model can provide incident managers with estimates of the evacuation times of different types of patients and can offer support to the managers with their resource allocation decisions in emergency situations. The major advantage of the prediction model is that the computation time is very short and the model does not need a lengthy and costly design. The model was applied for several different evacuation scenarios and the results were compared with those of a simulation model which had already been designed for use by the hospital. The comparison shows that the prediction model can provide estimates of the evacuation time that are similar to the results found by using costly and time-consuming simulation models.