Projecting long-run socioeconomic and demographic trends in California under the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios

The State of California is developing and implementing a new generation of environmental policies to transition to a low-carbon economy and energy system in order to reduce the risks of future damages from global climate change. At the same time, it is increasingly clear that climate change impacts are already occurring and that further effects cannot be completely avoided. Thus, anticipating and planning for emerging and potential future climate change impacts in California must complement the state’s greenhouse gas mitigation efforts. These impacts will depend substantially on the future evolution of the state’s social structure and economy. To support impact studies, this report describes socioeconomic storylines and key scenario elements for California that are broadly consistent with the global “A2” and “B1” storylines in the 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, including qualitative socioeconomic context as well as quantitative projections of key variables such as population, urbanization patterns, economic growth, and electricity prices.