Demographic, Clinical, and Geographic Predictors of Placement Disruption among Foster Care Youth Receiving Wraparound Services

The effective delivery of wraparound depends upon the availability of a wide range of community-based services. This study seeks to determine the impact of proximity to resources on the effectiveness of a wraparound program for stabilizing foster care placements among a sample of youth. We present a methodology for deriving proximity scores for individual clients using Geographic Information Systems technology, and incorporate this score into a model for predicting placement disruption among youth in foster care receiving services within a wraparound model aimed at preventing placement disruptions. Cox Regression is used to predict length of time until placement disruption using clinical, demographic, and service proximity measures. Risk of placement disruption is predicted by trauma experiences, risk behaviors, and age, and is reduced by the presence of child strengths and proximity to resources. The impact of proximity to resources on placement disruption varies by land use type, suggesting that proximity exerts a greater impact on youth in rural and suburban areas than in urban areas where wraparound service delivery models may be able to overcome distance and other barriers. Implications for the implementation of wraparound programs as well as service system planning are discussed.