A Prediction of the Peak Sunspot Number for Solar Cycle 23

A Prediction of the Peak Sunspot Number for Solar Cycle 23

We use a precursor technique based on the geomagneticaa index during the decline (last 30%) of solar cycle 22 to predict a peak sunspot number of 158 (± 18) for cycle 23, under the assumption that solar minimum occurred in May 1996. This method appears to be as reliable as those that require a year...

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Veröffentlicht in:Solar physics 1997-11, Vol.176 (1), p.211-216
Hauptverfasser: Bounar, Khaled H, Cliver, Edward W, Boriakoff, Valentin
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Solar physics
Sun
Sunspots
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Zusammenfassung:We use a precursor technique based on the geomagneticaa index during the decline (last 30%) of solar cycle 22 to predict a peak sunspot number of 158 (± 18) for cycle 23, under the assumption that solar minimum occurred in May 1996. This method appears to be as reliable as those that require a year of data surrounding the geomagnetic minimum, which typically follows the smoothed sunspot minimum by about six months.[PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
ISSN:0038-0938
1573-093X
DOI:10.1023/A:1004902905770