Changes in water level, land use, and hydrological budget in a semi-permanent playa lake, Southwest Spain

Medina playa lake, a Ramsar site in western Andalusia, is a brackish lowland lake of 120 ha with an average depth of 1 m. Water flows into Medina from its 1,748-ha watershed, but the hydrology of the lake has not previously been studied. This paper describes the application of a water budget model on a monthly scale over a 6-year period, based on a conceptual hydrological model, and considers different future scenarios after calibration to improve the understanding of the lake’s hydrological functioning. Climatic variables from a nearby weather station and observational data (water-level evolution) were used to develop the model. Comparison of measured and predicted values demonstrated that each model component provided a reasonable output with a realistic interaction among the components. The model was then used to explore the potential consequences of land-use changes. Irrigation of olive groves would significantly reduce both the hydroperiod (becoming dry 15% of the time) and the average depth of the lake (water level