Effectiveness of GIS suitability mapping in predicting ecological impacts of proposed wind farm development on Aristazabal Island, BC

Predicted impacts from a proposed wind farm at Aristazabal Island, British Columbia, were estimated to examine the compatibility of a wind farm with ecological factors using Ecosystem-Based Management (EBM). Historically, GIS-based multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) has not been used extensively in the quantification of ecological impacts. A GIS suitability map was created based on predictive ecosystem mapping (PEM) data using combined methods of Boolean overlay and weighted linear combination (WLC). This map was used to assist in generating a preliminary project layout for measuring footprint impacts to ecological elements. These impacts were tested against a selection of disturbance targets using scoring for ecological (as well as economic and social) factors based on EBM documentation. Of the 12 ecological targets identified, 10 were easily satisfied by the proposed layout, while the remaining two, impacts to rare ecosystems and their critical habitat, could be satisfied if the final design incorporated further field studies. Despite the data gaps and uncertainties (e.g., non-footprint impacts such as fragmentation), GIS suitability mapping using PEM is demonstrated to be an effective tool in representing a real wind farm and quantifying its ecological impacts in terms of magnitude.