Assessing the adequacy of current fisheries management under changing climate: a southern synopsis

Plagányi, É. E., Weeks, J. S., Skewes, T. D., Gibbs, M. T., Poloczanska, E. S., Norman-López, A., Blamey, L. K., Soares, M., and Robinson, W. M. L. 2011. Assessing the adequacy of current fisheries management under changing climate: a southern synopsis. - ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1305-1317. Climate change is likely to have a significant impact on both target and non-target marine stocks worldwide, with the concomitant need for management strategies capable of sustaining fishing in future. We use several southern hemisphere fisheries to highlight the likely impacts of climate change at a range of levels, from individual to population responses, as well as ecosystem ramifications. Examples span polar (Antarctic krill fishery), temperate (west coast pelagic fishery, abalone and rock lobster), and tropical (Torres Strait rock lobster) commercially important fisheries. Responses of these fisheries to either past observed environmental changes or projected future changes are used to deduce some anticipated implications of climate change for fisheries management, including economic impacts and governance considerations. We evaluate the effectiveness of current single-species assessment models, management strategy evaluation approaches and multispecies assessment models as future management tools to cope with likely climate-related changes. Non-spatial stock assessment models will have limited ability to separate fishery effects from the impacts of climate change. Anthropogenic climate change is occurring at a time-scale relevant to current fisheries management strategic planning and testing. Adaptive management frameworks (with their feedback loops) are ideal for detecting and adapting to changes in target stocks.