Evaluating a habitat template model's predictions of marine fish diversity on the Scotian Shelf and Bay of Fundy, Northwest Atlantic

Fisher, J. A. D., Frank, K. T., Kostylev, V. E., Shackell, N. L., Horsman, T., and Hannah, C. G. 2011. Evaluating a habitat template model's predictions of marine fish diversity on the Scotian Shelf and Bay of Fundy, Northwest Atlantic. - ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 2096-2105. Habitat template models that integrate physical, chemical, and biological data have the potential to explain geographic variation in life-history traits within assemblages and to predict locations where species will be most vulnerable to anthropogenic impact. A previously developed model based on spatial variations in scope for growth (SG) and natural disturbance (ND) for the Scotian Shelf/Bay of Fundy was tested for its ability to predict fish life-history traits, species diversity, and community composition using trawl survey data. Of 30 dominant fish species, large, slow-growing ones most vulnerable to overexploitation tended to be found in naturally stable habitats. Among consistently co-occurring groups, functional differentiation, rather than similarity of life history, characterized assemblages, whereas among survey strata, species richness peaked at intermediate levels of ND and species evenness increased with average SG. Community composition was significantly correlated with both habitat variables, declined by 40% through time preceding structural changes on the eastern Scotian Shelf, but geographic distance, depth, and bottom temperature remained more strongly related to composition. The results revealed compelling matches between template predictions and patterns of fish species diversity, but low variation in diversity of life history, and mobility of fish may account for some of the weaker matches to model predictions.