Spatial predictions of blue shark (Prionace glauca) catch rate and catch probability of juveniles in the Southwest Atlantic

Carvalho, F. C., Murie, D. J., Hazin, F. H. V., Hazin, H. G., Leite-Mourato, B., and Burgess, G. H. 2011. Spatial predictions of blue shark (Prionace glauca) catch rate and catch probability of juveniles in the Southwest Atlantic. - ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 890-900.Generalized regression analysis and spatial prediction was applied to catch per unit effort (cpue) data for blue shark (Prionace glauca) caught by the Brazilian tuna longline fleet between 1997 and 2008 (43 546 longline sets) to predict the effect of environmental, spatial, and temporal factors on catch distribution. In addition, the size distribution of blue sharks measured by on-board observers during the years 2006-2008 was used to model the proportion of juvenile blue sharks in the catches from a spatial perspective. Latitude was the most important factor influencing blue shark cpue in the Southwest Atlantic, with cpue spatial predictions suggesting two areas of higher catch probabilities. Latitude was also the most important factor influencing the proportion of juveniles in the catches. The spatial prediction map showed that juveniles were more frequently caught south of 35 degree S ( similar to 38 degree S). This information can assist in the design of management strategies either to exploit this predictable spatial distribution of the catch or to manage the fisheries in a spatially explicit manner if one component (i.e. juveniles) requires protective measures.