Response to Comment on “Erosion of Lizard Diversity by Climate Change and Altered Thermal Niches”

We derived physiological models that accurately predicted extinctions of Mexican and other lizards. Clusella-Trullas and Chown argue that global forecasts are unreliable without incorporating variance in microenvironmental temperatures, T e . Here, we show that T e variance is small relative to T e increases from climate warming. Thus, extinction forecasts are reliable ( R ¯ 2 = 0.72 ) even without T e variance data.