Predicting the invasion risk by the alien bee-hawking Yellow-legged hornet Vespa velutina nigrithorax across Europe and other continents with niche models

► Vespa velutina nigrithorax has been unintentionally introduced in south-western France before 2004. ► This invasive beehawking hornet is currently widely spreading across the country. ► Niche models using occurrence data from the native range could have predicted this invasion success. ► Models using data from both native and invaded ranges propose maps of world wide potential invasion risk. ► V. velutina should spread across most of western and southern Europe from the single French introduction spot. Vespa velutina nigrithorax, an Asian bee-hawking hornet, has been unintentionally introduced in south-western France before 2004 and is currently widely spreading across the country. Its arrival in northern Spain was reported in 2010. The potential invasion risk of the species is assessed using climatic suitability models. We used eight different modelling techniques within an ensemble forecast framework to show that the invasion success in south-western France could have been predicted using data from the native Asian range of the species, while we further used data from both the native and invaded ranges (including a recently established population in Korea) to better predict its potential invasion range across all continents. Results are discussed in terms of the interest of ecological niche modelling for invasion biology, realised niche of the invasive wasp, potential threats to native entomofauna and economic impacts of this new predator. A particular attention is paid to beekeeping activities that are nowadays already threatened by a wide panel of adversary factors.