Are Bavarian Forests (southern Germany) at risk from ground-level ozone? Assessment using exposure and flux based ozone indices

Exposure and flux-based indices of O 3 risk were compared, at 19 forest locations across Bavaria in southern Germany from 2002 to 2005; leaf symptoms on mature beech trees found at these locations were also examined for O 3 injury. O 3 flux modelling was performed using continuously recorded O 3 concentrations in combination with meteorological and soil moisture data collected from Level II forest sites. O 3 measurements at nearby rural open-field sites proved appropriate as surrogates in cases where O 3 data were lacking at forest sites (with altitude-dependent average differences of about 10% between O 3 concentrations). Operational thresholds of biomass loss for both O 3 indices were exceeded at the majority of the forest locations, suggesting similar risk under long-term average climate conditions. However, exposure-based indices estimated higher O 3 risk during dry years as compared to the flux-based approach. In comparison, minor O 3-like leaf injury symptoms were detected only at a few of the forest sites investigated. Relationships between flux-based risk thresholds and tree response need to be established for mature forest stands for validation of predicted growth reductions under the prevailing O 3 regimes. Exposure- and flux-based ozone indices suggest Bavarian forests to be at risk from ozone; the flux-based index offers a means of incorporating stand-specific and ecological variables that influence risk.