Development of a new tank-to-wheels methodology for energy use and green house gas emissions analysis based on vehicle fleet modeling

Background, aim and scope Tank-to-Wheels (TtW) makes the largest contribution to the total Well-to-Wheels (WtW) energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fossil-derived transportation fuels. The most commonly adopted TtW methodologies to obtain vehicle energy consumption, energy efficiency, and GHG emissions used to date all have significant limitations. A new TtW methodology, which combines micro-scale virtual vehicle simulation with macro-scale fleet modeling, is proposed in this paper. The models capabilities are demonstrated using a case study based on data from the passenger car sector in Great Britain. Methods A simplified internal combustion engine model was developed in-house to simulate engine behaviors across a wide range of engine capacities and technologies. Vehicle simulation was then carried out using the efficiency map output by the simplified engine model for any given gasoline or diesel engine; the simulation was validated for 37 vehicles available on the UK market in terms of their vehicle-certification fuel consumption, with a discrepancy generally within 3%. Real-world fleet and driving data from the Great Britain’s car fleet was extracted from the Transport Statistics Great Britain (TSGB) database between 2001 and 2007TSGB 2001–2007 . A virtual fleet was constructed with the validated virtual vehicles to represent the real-world passenger car fleet in terms of its composition and operating characteristics. This fleet model was shown to match the real-world fleet-averaged fuel consumption within 3% for the gasoline fleet and within 6% for the diesel fleet. Finally, several scenarios were analyzed using the validated fleet model, covering a projection for 2008, driving pattern, lubrication, and fuel. The vehicle-to-vehicle variation was found to be significant in some scenarios, indicating that a fleet-based methodology would be more rigorous and flexible. Discussion Energy consumption and CO 2 emission figures from previous, well-recognized Europe-oriented studies (e.g., the 2008 JRC/EUCAR/CONCAWE study) were significantly lower than the TSGB real-world results based on the new TtW methodology. It is apparent that using a single vehicle to represent the whole fleet could be misleading; in particular, the relative energy efficiency and CO 2 emission of diesel over gasoline cars might follow a different trend with time for the real-world fleet from that shown in previous studies. Conclusions Future WtW studies can benefit