Trend of technology innovation in China's coal-fired electricity industry under resource and environmental constraints

This research builds a technology-based bottom-up model to estimate the performance of China's coal-fired electricity industry on resource consumption and environmental emissions. From the integrated estimation of three scenarios characterizing different stages of technology innovation in 2007–2030, technology innovation is proven to be the determinant in decreasing resource use and environmental effects from electricity production, but analysis based on current policies reveals some doubt in achieving the coal consumption intensity control target. Constrained with national control targets, the best route of technology innovation is calculated by integrated benefit targeting optimization. Supercritical (SC) and ultra-supercritical (USC) pressure boilers, flue gas desulfurization (FGD) and closed-cycle wet cooling with a high circulation ratio will be the mainstream technologies before 2030 based on current policy. It is inevitable to close or reconstruct small power plants from the late 2010s, and integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) and pressurized fluidized bed combustion combined cycle (PFBC-CC) plants will show a competitive advantage in the late 2020s. However, air cooling and FGD systems will expand slower than the authorities' expectation, while higher water prices and SO2 charges promote the expansion. Stricter restrictions are also found to be positive for technological progress. ► This research builds a technology-based bottom-up model to reflect the relationship between technology structure and the performance in resource and environment of China's coal-fired electricity industry. ► Coal consumption intensities for the electricity supply fail to meet the national control target in the three technology innovation scenarios. ► As the best route of technology innovation, SC and USC pressure boilers, FGD and closed-cycle wet cooling with a high circulation ratio will be the mainstream technologies before 2030 based on current policy. ► Air cooling and FGD systems will expand slower than the authorities' expectation, while higher water prices and SO2 charges promote the expansion. ► Technology innovation is proven to be the determinant in decreasing resource use and environmental effects from electricity production, and stricter national control targets are found to be positive for technological progress.