Dynamic simulation of Shanghai urban expansion based on multi-agent system and cellular automata models

A dynamic urban expansion model was established by integrating and taking advantages of cellular automata model and multi-agent simulation model. The model first simulated Shanghai urban expansion in 2005 and was tested, then it was used to project the expansion in 2010 and 2020. The data sources were mainly obtained from the Shanghai digital city data (including schools, hospitals, residential, commercial, industrial, parks and green spaces), digital elevation model, and social and economic data. The two parts, cellular automata model (CA) and multi-agent system (MAS), of the established model were integrated in the ArcGIS environment. The multi-agent system was used to overcome the deficiencies of cellular automata model. The influencing factors (such as social, economic, cultural and public policy) were induced. The administrative districts of Shanghai were divided into urban center, suburb and periphery areas. The projection of urban land was based on the regression analysis of urban land, population and