Ensemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July–September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment: a case study

Ensemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July–September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment: a case study

We present a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning in the Upper Huai catchment (ca. 30 672 km2). TIGGE ensemble forecasts from 6 meteorological centres with 10‐day lead time were extracted and disaggregated to drive the Xinanjiang model to forecast discharges for flood events in July...

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Veröffentlicht in:Atmospheric science letters 2010-04, Vol.11 (2), p.132-138
Hauptverfasser: He, Yi, Wetterhall, Fredrik, Bao, Hongjun, Cloke, Hannah, Li, Zhijia, Pappenberger, Florian, Hu, Yuzhong, Manful, Desmond, Huang, Yingchun
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Atmospheric sciences
Case studies
Catchment area
Catchment basins
ensemble flood forecast
Ensemble forecasting
Flood forecasting
Flood warnings
Floods
Forecasting skill
Hydrology
Lead time
Precipitation forecasting
Rivers
TIGGE
Upper Huai catchment
Water resources
Weather forecasting
Xinanjiang model
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Zusammenfassung:We present a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning in the Upper Huai catchment (ca. 30 672 km2). TIGGE ensemble forecasts from 6 meteorological centres with 10‐day lead time were extracted and disaggregated to drive the Xinanjiang model to forecast discharges for flood events in July‐September 2008. The results demonstrated satisfactory flood forecasting skills with clear signals of floods up to 10 days in advance. The forecasts occasionally show discrepancies both in time and space. Forecasting quality could potentially be improved by using temporal and spatial corrections of the forecasted precipitation. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society
ISSN:1530-261X
1530-261X
DOI:10.1002/asl.270