Hydrological seasonal forecast over France: feasibility and prospects

Hydrological seasonal forecast over France: feasibility and prospects

This article presents a first evaluation of a hydrological forecasting suite at seasonal time scales over France. The hydrometeorological model SAFRAN‐ISBA‐MODCOU is forced by seasonal forecasts from the DEMETER project for the March–April–May period. Despite a simple downscaling method, the atmosph...

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Veröffentlicht in:Atmospheric science letters 2010-04, Vol.11 (2), p.78-82
Hauptverfasser: Céron, J.‐P., Tanguy, G., Franchistéguy, L., Martin, E., Regimbeau, F., Vidal, J.‐P.
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Catchment area
Catchment basins
Catchments
Climate science
ensemble forecast
Hydrologic forecasting
Hydrology
Hydrometeorology
Moisture content
River flow
seasonal forecast
Seasonal forecasting
Soil moisture
soil wetness index
Stream flow
Weather forecasting
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Zusammenfassung:This article presents a first evaluation of a hydrological forecasting suite at seasonal time scales over France. The hydrometeorological model SAFRAN‐ISBA‐MODCOU is forced by seasonal forecasts from the DEMETER project for the March–April–May period. Despite a simple downscaling method, the atmospheric forcings are reasonably well represented at the finest scale. The computed soil moisture shows some predictability with large regions of correlation above 0.3. Probabilistic scores for soil moisture and river flows for four different catchments are higher than that for atmospheric variables. These results suggest to go further for building an operational hydrological seasonal forecast system. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society
ISSN:1530-261X
1530-261X
DOI:10.1002/asl.256