On forecasting solar proton events using a ground-based neutron monitor

Results of applying the method developed for early warning about arrival of ∼10–100-MeV proton fluxes to the Earth after powerful eruptive events on the Sun, which uses the real time observable data received by the global network of ground-based neutron monitors (Mavromichalaki et al., 2009), are discussed. The retrospective analysis and comparison to the 2001–2006 observations indicate that more than 50% of solar proton events were omitted in such a forecasting method. For higher reliability, it is necessary to use additional data on the state of solar and heliospheric activity.