Factors governing the interannual variation and the long‐term trend of the 850 hPa temperature over Israel

This study examines the ability of the interannual variability in the occurrence of synoptic types, intensity of large‐scale circulations and global temperature to explain that of the 850 hPa temperature in Israel for the summer and the winter. The synoptic factor was represented by 19 types defined by Alpert et al(2004b). For the summer, the deep and the weak Persian Trough explained 35% of the interannual temperature variance. For the winter, the lows to the east and to the north explained 44% of the interannual temperature variance. Two additional factors were incorporated: large‐scale circulations, the North Atlantic Oscillation for the summer and the Arctic Oscillation for the winter; and global radiative forcing, represented by the global temperature. Both of them were found to be significant, and the variance explained by all of them is 56% for the summer and 64% for the winter. In the summer the variation is dominated by warm and cool types whereas in the winter the cold systems dominate. The individual contribution of each factor to the long‐term temperature trend was estimated. While the global radiative forcing contribution was positive and large in both seasons, the synoptic contribution was positive, four times larger in the summer. The large‐scale contribution was negative, three times larger in the winter. The considerable warming in the summer results from a rapid increase in the occurrence of the weak Persian Trough, which is a warm type. The study approach may be useful for predicting future temperature regimes, based on predicted synoptic features in climatic models. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society