Use of the Delphi Panel Method to Assess Expert Perception of the Accuracy of Screening Test Systems for Infectious Pancreatic Necrosis Virus and Infectious Hematopoietic Necrosis Virus

Fifteen people, considered to be experts on fish virology, participated in a Delphi panel exercise to solicit opinion concerning the importance of factors that influence the ability of cell culture to detect infectious pancreatic necrosis virus (IPNV) or infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) in asymptomatic infected salmonids. Panelists rated many factors as having a strong impact on the sensitivity of cell culture and particularly emphasized the importance of technical and laboratory‐related factors. Participants also provided their perceived estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of test systems—consisting of cell culture followed by serum neutralization, specific gene probes, enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), or fluorescent‐antibody microscopy—for IPNV and IHNV in asymptomatic salmonids. The sensitivities estimated by panelists for optimal conditions were less than 70% for both IPNV and IHNV. There was substantial panelist uncertainty about the estimates, as indicated by large variances among individual responses. The system using serum neutralization for virus identification was perceived to have the highest sensitivity. All panelists estimated specificity to be very high. The importance of these findings with respect to the design of surveillance, quality assurance and control programs, and the interpretation of screening data are discussed.