Prediction of permafrost changes in Northeastern China under a changing climate

Northeastern China has the second largest expanse of permafrost in China,primarily known as Xing＇an-Baikal permafrost.Located on the southeastern edges of the Eurasian cryolithozone,the permafrost is thermally unstable and ecologically sensitive to external changes.The combined impacts of climatic,environmental,and anthropogenic changes cause 3-dimensional degradation of the permafrost.To predict these changes on the southern limit and ground temperature of permafrost in Northeastern China,an equivalent latitude model （ELM） for the mean annual ground surface temperature （MAGSTs） was proposed,and further improved to take into account of the influences of vegetation and snow-cover based on observational data and using the SHAW model.Using the finite element method and assuming a climate warming rate of 0.048°C a-1,the ELM was combined with the unsteady-state heat conduction model to simulate permafrost temperatures at present,and to predict those after 50 and 100 a.The results indicate that at present,sporadic permafrost occurs in the zones with MAGSTs of 1.5°C or colder,and there would still be a significant presence of permafrost in the zones with the present MAGSTs of 0.5°C or colder after 50 a,and in those of-0.5°C or colder after 100 a.Furthermore,the total areal extent of permafrost would decrease from 2.57×105 km2 at present to 1.84×105 km2 after 50 a and to 1.29×105 km2 after 100 a,i.e.,a reduction of 28.4% and 49.8% in the permafrost area,respectively.Also the permafrost would degrade more substantially in the east than in the west.Regional warming and thinning of permafrost would also occur.The area of stable permafrost （mean annual ground temperature,or MAGT≤-1.0°C） would decrease from present 1.07×105 to 8.8×104 km2 after 50 a,and further decrease to 5.6×104 km2 after 100 a.As a result,the unstable permafrost and seasonally frozen ground would expand,and the southern limit of permafrost would shift significantly northwards.The changes in the permafrost environment may adversely affect on ecological environments and engineering infrastructures in cold regions.Avoidance of unnecessary anthropogenic changes in permafrost conditions is a practical approach to protect the permafrost environment.