Analysis of climate change in Hungary according to an extended Koeppen classification system, 1971-2060

The purpose of this paper is to provide information on tendencies of the climate change in the area of Hungary (48.3 degree -45.5 degree W; 16.0 degree -22.3 degree E) between 1971 and 2060. Future climate change results obtained from climate models are not used directly due to their uncertainties and inaccuracies, but spatio-temporal distribution of climate classes of the Koeppen climate classification system is analyzed. It has become clear that the Koeppen system is unable to indicate the expected warming of the summer in certain cases, thus, two additional climate classes are introduced. Two datasets are used, the CRU TS 1.2 (with a spatial resolution of 1/6 x 1/6 degrees) for observed temperature and precipitation, and TYN SC 1.0 (same resolution) for climate model generated data. In the latter case, all the four available emission scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1, B2) are analyzed. The climate class of each grid box is calculated for each year from temperature and precipitation data, then the changes of areas covered by the classes resulted from the previous step are analyzed. The evaluation of tendencies is based on 10- and 30-year climate average maps and on the extremes of yearly values of each class. It is found that climate extremes will strengthen in the future during a nearly constant warming. Additionally, the more and more frequent appearance of the steppe climate and the constant presence of the dry-summered class at the end of the period show growing aridity in the area.